Netflix 2Qの契約者数が会社予想を下回り株価大幅下落
会社HPより株主向けレターから転載
July 16, 2018
Fellow shareholders,
We had a strong but not stellar Q2, ending with 130 million memberships. Membership growth was 5.2m, the same as Q2 last year, but lower than our 6.2m forecast. Earnings, margins, and revenue were all in-line with forecast and way up from prior year. Internet video is growing globally and we are fortunate to be one of the leaders. In addition to succeeding commercially, we are starting to lead artistically in some categories, with our creators earning enough Emmy nominations this year to collectively break HBO’s amazing 17-year run.
Q2 Results and Q3 Forecast
Streaming revenue in Q2 rose 43% year over year, driven by a 26% and 14% increase in average paid memberships and ASP, respectively. Operating margin of 11.8% expanded 720 bps year over year, resulting in 262% growth in operating income. EPS of $0.85 vs. $0.15 included an $85 million non-cash unrealized gain from F/X remeasurement on our Eurobond. As a reminder, the quarterly guidance we provide is our actual internal forecast at the time we report and we strive for accuracy, meaning in some quarters we will be high and other quarters low relative to our guidance. This Q2, we over-forecasted global net additions which amounted to 5.2m vs. a forecast of 6.2m and flat compared to Q2 a year ago, as acquisition growth was slightly lower than we projected.
Paid net adds totaled 5.5m in Q2, compared with 4.7m last year and forecast of 6.1m.
US net adds of 0.7m (vs. guidance of 1.2m) were down vs. last year’s Q2-record 1.1m, but consistent with previous Q2 performance (0.5m in Q2’12, 0.6m in Q2’13, 0.6m in Q2’14, 0.9m in Q2’15, and 0.2m in Q2’16). Through the first six months of the year, our US net adds are slightly ahead of last year. Internationally, 4.5m net additions grew 8% year over year on broad market growth.
For Q3, we forecast global net adds of 5.0m (compared with 5.3m in Q3’17), with 0.65m and 4.35m in the US and international segment, respectively. Paid net adds are forecast to be 5.2m, up from 5.0m in Q3’17.
以下要約
❏2Qの契約者増は会社側予想620万に対し前年同期並みの520万
❏ストリーミング売上は前年同期比43%増
❏営業利益率は前年同期比7.2%アップと大幅改善し、11.8%
❏営業利益率の大幅改善により2Qの営業利益は前年同期比262%増
❏一株当たり利益は会社側予想の0.15ドルを大幅に上回る0.85ドル
大幅増はユーロ建て社債の為替による含み益8500万ドルを含む
❏有料会員数増は会社側予想610万に対し550万
❏米国内の会員増は会社側予想120万に対し70万、前年同期の110万より低下
❏海外市場では8%増の450万
❏3Qの会社予想は全市場で500万増、うち米国内65万増、海外市場435万増
会社側はフリーキャッシュフローを30億から40億ドルの赤字予想を据え置きしている。
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